As the winter nights get longer, the season at Auteuil is coming to a close. Although there are still a few races left to be run in Paris, this weekend's card, which featured the final Grade 1 of the season, the Prix Renaud du Vivier, generally marks the end of the “proper” racing in the North. So, before we head down to Cagnes-Sur-Mer and Pau, it is time for a little reflection on what we have seen this autumn and what it might mean for French jump racing in 2025. Here are my 5 key takeaways from the last 10-weeks of racing at Auteuil.
Kaadam will soon be King
I wrote a detailed piece about Arnaud Chaille-Chailles leading 4-year-old last week (see related articles) so I don’t intend to dwell on him too much here. However, having taken some time to look through the ranks of the older steeplechasers in France, I can’t find any reason to think that this horse isn’t about to take the division by storm. Gran Diose is a wonderful horse. Louisa Carberry has trained him perfectly to land both the Grade 1 Chases this year and he is going to be a player next year too. However, in a division that lacks any significant depth, he has been produced perfectly on 2 occasions, 6-months apart, to perhaps run to a mark of 155-160 and that has been more than enough to dispatch his rivals. He is the horse that Kaadam has to beat, but there is not an insurmountable gap between them and my money is likely to be carried by the younger, improving 5-year-old.
Il Est Francais won’t carry my money anymore
Like everybody else in racing, I got caught up in a wave of euphoria after Il Est Francais won at Kempton last Christmas. He was magnificent that day, a truly Grade 1 performance. However, he has blown out on 2 occasions since and having now had some cold water to calm my enthusiasm, an examination of his form has left me with far too many questions. Whilst he is a magnificent sight to behold when he is in full flow, the fact remains that he is yet to beat a horse over fences that would be rated above 150 and with no obvious reason coming to light for his poor showing last weekend, I’m running out of reasons to excuse him. Having watched the Prix la Haye Jousselin back a couple of times, I wonder if he simply doesn’t like being put under pressure? He jumped nicely on the first circuit, but from the moment that Juntos Ganamos was asked to close by Felix de Giles, Il Est Francais changed. He began to meet his obstacles on the wrong stride, slowing into a couple and lacking any fluency at all as they jumped the water in front of the stands. On the run to the next, he hung his head to the left, as if to look at Juntos Ganamos to see where his rival was and from there he was quickly pulled up. He may return to form, win a King George or a Grand Steeple Chase de Paris and make this sound very foolish, but I have so many questions about him now, that I don’t think I would be able to back him with any confidence.
Losange Bleu remains top of the pile
The Papot silks have become synonymous with the Grand Prix D’Automne and whilst Galop Marin, a 4-time winner of the race, is sadly no longer with us, Losange Bleu has picked up the mantle with ease. He has been almost faultless this year and even though he was beaten in the Prix Carmarthen in October, I think that can easily be put down to an error of judgement by Johnny Charron in the back straight rather than any chink in the armour of France’s superstar stayer. Kingland may stay over hurdles and if he does, he will be a new challenger to Losange Bleu’s crown, especially in the autumn when the ground is softer. However, he needs to prove that he can deliver a top class performance on better ground and I suspect that he has been the best horse in a relatively weak set of 4-year-olds this year and in this discipline, I think Losange Bleu sets a very high standard and it will take an exceptional performance to remove his crown from him in May.
The best French 3-year-olds are still in France
The likes of Willy de Houelle, Lulamba, Murcia and Sauvignon may prove me wrong, but in what looks to be a relatively strong crop of juvenile hurdlers, I can’t help but feel that the better horses have not been sold. Top of that pile would be Zaine. Although we didn’t get to see Dominique Bressou’s 3-year-old last weekend, her form with Olympic Story and Mamisuz de Houelle worked out extremely well and the fact that she readily beat those fillies by 9-lengths would suggest that she is going to be a force to be reckoned with as a 4-year-old. The Colts and Geldings has been a more murky picture in the autumn, not least because it seemed as if Nietzsche Has had lost his way, but he bounced back to form to chase home Sain D’Esprit in the Prix Cambaceres and that has restored my faith in the spring form. Both of those horses look to have matched the levels reached by Jigme (2023) and St Donats (2022) and I think that the strong time figures from this year's race offer plenty of hope for these horses as they head into their 4-year-old season. As a small side note, it has been assumed that Nietzsche Has will be heading off to stud for most of this year, but it now seems that we will get to see him again, with the Grade 2 Juvenile Finale at Chepstow in December now reported to be on his agenda. It was announced earlier this month that he will stand at Haras de Montaigu for €7,000 in 2025, but he will get one last chance to boost his CV at Chepstow in 4-weeks time before he embarks on his new career.
Arnaud Chaille-Chaille reigns supreme
It has been an exceptional end to the season for Arnaud Chaille-Chaille and he is going to be a worthy winner of the champion trainer title in France. At the time of writing he has surpassed the €4.7m prize-money mark with 107 winners from 527 runners. There are an exceptional number of talented horses in his yard, including a whole host of 3-year-old hurdle winners. In almost continuous good form since mid-August, he would be a fairly short price to be champion trainer again in 2025 if such a market existed.
Great summary thanks.