Horse Racing is a wonderful sport and there are so many ways to enjoy it, but we shouldn't hide from the fact that it does revolve around betting. The history of the sport is founded upon money being wagered between owners as to who's horse will be the fastest form point A to point B. Without betting, the sport would simply not exist. Like many punters I have my own unique way of approaching a betting card and after a couple of "trial runs" with this approach of presenting my notes, I have decided to add them to this blog.
I certainly do not have a bet in every race, far from it. These days, for various reasons, I prefer just to bet into the PMU pools in France wherever that is feasible, but for the purposes of this blog I will highlight the prices taken with Fixed odds bookmakers to give an easier way of measuring the value taken, or not, as the case may be. Here are todays notes for Chantilly, with the bets placed highlighted in bold.
R1 – Newcomer Mozafaka no forlorn hop. Straight into a C2 but half-sister to 2 winners and Grand-Dam a genuine G1 Filly. Yard form a little off putting though, no winners in last 32 runners and just 3 placed.
Hashtag Joa most experienced (5 starts). 4th when racing away from the rail in Clairefontaine C2, winner beaten a long way in Listed at Bordeaux yesterday. Rose Jaipur likely to improve past here, 3/1 when winning “inedits” race at Saint-Cloud last month, form untested since (slow time compared to 3YO handicaps over C&D). Tracked leader, waited for gap and quickened smartly.
Parrhesia rated 40 as chased home Shiffrin in Clairefontaine C2. Won maiden at Vittel? Too keen and faded when only 4th there last time. Flattered by this mark.
L’Equilibriste for Peter Chapple-Hyam (last French winner was Dutch Art in 2006). Beaten on debut at Leicester, 3rd over 1,800m here last month. Winner (Zandy) well beaten in Marcel Boussac at the weekend. Green under pressure but kept on.
Rose Jaipur opened Evens but can’t be a bet for me at odds-on.
R2 – Small field but good quality 3YO handicap
Tropisme good value for a mark of 42. Won big handicap at Longchamp in August and 2nd has won since. Decent time. Raced prominently which looks key here but has 4-kilo swing with Ends of the Earth (3rd). EOTE won on PSF track in November. 0-7 in 2023 but running his race.
Near Amore not progressing. Cameron 4th in C1 at Compiegne but beaten relatively easily.
Gain It up in trip a better move but is 1,600 far enough? Sister to Gregarina and Gagarin’s Moon, Galileo family. Axdaliva the opposite, speedy and needs strong pace to track. I think Rising Up needs a break. 3 wins at Cagnes but not same since and not finding enough.
With basic handicapping, would think Ends of the Earth fair value to reverse form with Tropisme.
Bet Placed: Opened up 9/4 Ends of the Earth, 11/4 Tropisme which is very fair. Played small stakes reverse exacta 1-5.
R3 – Fou Furieux a fair 36.5 horse but probably not more than that. Ganass placed 4/6 starts but 32 rated fair and no better. Sitoi probably leads again but looks longer term than this after one paced finish at Saint-Cloud.
Casapueblo 11/8 fav to win here on debut, tracked slow pace, had to wait for room but went through gap easily. Looks better form than Retouch (7th on debut, won easier race at Craon).
Casapueblo’s race to lose but 8/13? Happy to leave that.
Dempy was 4th to Rose Jaipur on debut (R1) so obvious hint at the form. Had 9/1 SP, kept on but not a threat. Educational ride.
R4 – 17-runner Class 4 handicap, happy to leave this.
R5 – Sprint Claimer. Gamgoom probable pace angle but not sure at 12YO he is up to this. Suits a closer and this much easier than C1 handicap when Droit de Parole was 6th last time, some late headway from rear (33.25 final 3f). Also interested to see Crew Dragon drop back to a claimer (4th only other run at this level). Finished 3rd in C2 last time, staying on down centre of track.
Koutsounakos won 13 of 79 races. Won over 4-furlongs last time, held off Gamgoon. This is much harder and likely to set the race up for a closer.
Bets Placed: Race suits a closer like Droit de Parole 11/2 and Crew Dragon at 9/4, split stakes.
R6 – 17-runner C3 handicap – happy to leave race alone.
R7 – Listed Feature.
Tudo Bem well beaten in the Prix de L’Abbaye on Sunday, makes this a big ask for him. He holds Amellata on earlier form, as does Berneuil. Form also ties in with Forza Capitano.
Tomila won last 2 at La Teste but drawn on quick ground to attack. Much harder test. Vicious Harry consistent but just 1-11 (debut maiden win here). Drole de Dame bumped into a good thing at Fontainebleau, was clear of the rest in 2nd. Up in class. Better case for Bolchoi, won 3 of last 4, beat Tudo Bem last time. Messy race in truth. Could be 5/1 the field.
Bet Placed: Split Win Only Stakes on Bolchoi 9/1 and Drole de Dame 14/1 early prices.
R8 – Another max field handicap and happy to leave alone.
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