There are 3 premium meetings in France today which has left a lot of racing to assess, especially when you add in the PMH meetings at Tarbes and Meslay-du-Maine. For that reason, todays punting blog is quite selective and I have decided to focus on the 3-year-old maidens at Fontainebleau before settling in for an afternoon watching a top quality card at Auteuil. I have included my notes on both the maiden races and the bets placed, with a view that there is some value to be had from both markets.
12:40 Prix des Biches
2 Newcomers. Starkey supplemented. Waldpark Colt, half-brother to German winner. Hans Blume 10-111 in France YTD. Amour Certain has the better pedigree. Montmartre, Dam rated 39, 5 winning progeny including 2 rated 45+ (Bebe D’Amour and Amour A Papa). Yard is 0-66 this year though, and claimer booked for debut.
Soumillon booked for Eye in the Sky. Last of 6 on debut at Longchamp (11/1 SP), better when 3rd at Dieppe but well placed. Not certain to like this smaller field setup. By Cracksman, already shapes like a dour stayer so stiffer finish here should suit him.
Bauhinia Rhapsody unlikely to matter on form. Sapristi 7th on debut at Clairefontaine, keeping on one paced but readily beaten.
Race should concern Prince of Dawn and Seeds of Change. Prince of Dawn probably leads, fair form in 4 maiden runs, but beaten at 7/4 and 15/8 on last 2 starts having had the run of the race. Looks vulnerable in closing stages. Seeds of Change had 3 runs before being sold to Wertheimer’s (still with Fabre). Finished 3rd last time, but winner and 2nd both won since, winner looks pattern class (Syrakus). Kept on without asked for everything last time, this is much easier.
Bet Placed - Seeds of Change opened 10/11 which is probably fair on what he has achieved. Won’t get a better chance but 0-4 now so not an odds on bet for me. Played a straight exacta instead as I think there is a good chance Prince of Dawn will fade, 5-2.
1:15 Prix des Acacias
A much better maiden than R4.
Ramira the only newcomer. Soumillon booked to ride for debut, 16% SR for Lerner yard. By Almanzor, Dam rated 35, 2 winning progeny. Perhaps an educational ride, but worth watching PMU for confidence.
Pinter Sands soundly beaten on debut at La Teste in March and off since. Uniqa beaten at Compiegne and Nancy, has shown some ability but this is a deep maiden, handicaps after this I would assume.
Puerta del Sol rated 37.5. Best run to date when 4th on Heavy ground at Dieppe. Form is OK, winner entered at Saint-Cloud next weekend, 2nd has won since. Sets a fair standard on that mark but probably going to find something better today.
La Tornade 4th on debut here (11/1), raced in rear and came widest, keeping on. Form taken a few knocks, but maybe ran to 35 on debut? Closely matched with Inclination, who is not improving from mark of 35.
Time to Shine 0-4, off since June. Fair form when 4th at Lyon Parilly at the time, but only worked out to be a 36-38 type run. Needs to improve though shapes like track will suit more.
Market revolves around La Bombasse. Roaring Lion x Bateel (G1 winner by Dubawi). 11/4 Fav on debut at Angers, Reared at the start and lost all chance, kept on under educational ride when not able to get on terms. Fair enough form given the stalls issue. Stall 8 perhaps not perfect but bred to be better than this level.
Bet Placed – Made La Bombasse and Evens Chance so happy to take 7/4 on offer this morning.
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